IFR SNAPSHOT - IG corporate primary roars back after holiday snooze

10 min read
Americas, Emerging Markets
John Doran

The US investment-grade primary is back in force after a brief Thanksgiving Day holiday lull, with at least 11 offerings slated for sale today to start the month of December.

The high-yield primary expects at least one issue to price today.

Meanwhile, US equity syndicate desks will look to squeeze a solid slate of issuance into the first two weeks of December ahead of the Christmas shutdown.

In the secondary corporate bond market this morning, automotive company Stellantis' bonds were relatively unmoved in the wake of the abrupt resignation of CEO Carlos Tavares on Sunday, according to a report from CreditSights today.

"While it does little to impact near term credit quality, the departure of Carlos Tavares is negative for the longer-term credit story at Stellantis, in our view," CreditSights said.

The week ahead for US economic data features a critically important release on Friday: the November jobs report. Also this week, a number of Fed speakers are slated to make appearances following the FOMC minutes last week. Today, the week starts with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

"It is set to be a busier week after the lull of Thanksgiving, with a lot of focus on various important US employment data culminating in payrolls on Friday, a number that could influence the fairly tight December 18th Fed decision," Deutsche Bank Research said in a report today. In regard to the US employment data, Deutsche Bank said its forecast for Friday's payrolls is 215,000, while the consensus estimate is at 200,000; Deutsche and the consensus expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%.

Looking back at last week, the S&P 500 climbed to a new record by the end of the holiday-shortened week, Deutsche said, for a 1.06% gain over the week, with 0.56% of that gain made on Friday. Also, the 10-year US Treasury note yield was a bit higher this morning after a strong rally last week, Deutsche noted.

IFR said this morning that US Treasuries have traded relatively flat to start the first week of December. "Indeed we believe the rally is likely to fizzle out here, after a blistering 31bp dump in yields," IFR said.

No offerings were priced in the IG primary or HY primary on Friday, which also saw an early close for the bond market at 2:00pm New York time following the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

With November over and issuance tallied, 2024 became the second busiest year on record for IG volume, with 997 deals year-to-date totaling US$1.499trn, according to IFR data.

The average IG bond spread was unchanged at 82bp on Friday and the HY bond spread was 3bp wider at 272bp, according to ICE BofA data. US yields across asset classes were lower on Friday.

HIGH GRADE

The US investment-grade bond market is getting off to a strong start to the week, with at least 11 offerings expected to price on Monday.

Drug wholesaler Cencora is marketing three, five and 10-year senior unsecured notes to finance its US$4.6bn acquisition of healthcare provider Retina Consultants of America.

Utility Jersey Central Power & Light and REIT American Homes 4 Rent are both printing 10-year senior notes. Other utilities coming to market include Evergy, Georgia Power and Wisconsin Public Service. Also in the primary is Extra Space Storage with a US$300m tap.

FIG issuance represents a large chunk of today's supply. Consumer lender Ally Financial is selling both senior unsecured and subordinated paper. Meanwhile, alternative asset manager Blackstone is issuing a 10-year note via a subsidiary. Insurers New York Life Insurance and Protective Life are both issuing funding agreement-backed notes.

LEVERAGE/HIGH YIELD

The primary market for high-yield bonds is picking up some steam as more junk-rated borrowers look to raise funding this week.

Ryan Specialty Holdings has announced a US$500m add-on to its 5.875% senior secured 2032s ahead of expected pricing today.

The insurance company is using proceeds for acquisition opportunities and general purposes.

Also in the market is a split-rated 144a/Reg S trade from Japanese technology firm Rakuten, which is out with a US$500m perpetual non-call five offering.

The subordinated bond is rated B/BBB-/BBB by S&P, R&I and JCR and carries a fixed-rate coupon that is reset every five years if the bond is not called. S&P counts 50% of the hybrid transaction as equity.

Proceeds are being used to refinance yen-denominated subordinated debt.

STRUCTURED FINANCE

The securitization primary is poised for an active first half of December with issuers seeking to lock down funding ahead of year-end.

A number of commercial and residential mortgage issuers have filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on their upcoming deals.

Meanwhile, the asset-backed sector is sluggish after a relatively muted November when US$10bn of supply landed. Still, the ABS market is closing out a record year, with more than US$300bn of offerings sold since January.

LATAM

Mexican corn flour and tortilla manufacturing giant Gruma has mandated BBVA, Bank of America, JP Morgan and Scotiabank to arrange a series of virtual meetings with fixed-income investors, starting today, in preparation for a potential US dollar-denominated bond offering with 10-year and 30-year maturities.

Uruguay has set initial price guidance today for its seven-part Samurai bond offering, which is expected to price on Dec 6. One or more tranches could be dropped before the pricing date.

Initial price guidance is Tonar mid-swaps plus 65bp-75bp for the three-year, plus 75bp-80bp area for the five-year, plus 80bp-85bp area for the seven-year, plus 90bp-95bp area for the 10-year, plus 100bp-105bp area for the 15-year, plus 110bp-115bp area for the 20-year and plus 120bp-125bp area for the 30-year tranches.

Initial price thoughts were plus 60bp area for the three-year, plus 70bp area for the five-year, plus 80bp area for the seven-year, plus 90bp area for the 10-year, plus 100bp area for the 15-year, plus 110bp area for the 20-year and plus 120bp area for the 30-year tranches.

Daiwa, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley and SMBC are the bookrunners on this Reg S offering.

EQUITIES

PG&E is raising US$2.4bn from a combined sale of common stock and a mandatory convertible security to help fund a massive five-year capex plan to make its networks more resilient and meet rising power demand in California.

A syndicate led by JP Morgan, Barclays and Citigroup is leading the utility’s one-day marketed sale of US$1.2bn of common stock and a US$1.2bn three-year mandatory versus Friday’s closing price of US$21.63.

The syndicate is marketing the mandatory with a 6%-6.5% dividend and a 20%-25% conversion premium (in contrast, PG&E’s latest common dividend is just 2.5 cents per share).

The offering comes despite CEO Patricia Poppe telling analysts on last month’s quarterly earnings call that the utility was “firm” about committing to no new equity in 2024 and would likely raise the US$3bn of equity it needed from 2025 to 2028 from a “routine” at-the-money (or dribble-out) offering.

PG&E, whose stock price is up 20% this year, said the offering proceeds would help fund its five-year capital plan, which the utility last month increased by US$1bn to US$63bn from 2024 to 2028.

Bank of America, Mizuho and Wells Fargo are also acting as joint bookrunners.

Crypto miners Core Scientific and Mara are again using the convertible bond market as a low-cost source of funding for their bitcoin purchases.

Having already deployed most of the US$1bn it raised two weeks ago, Mara is seeking another US$700m from a seven-year zero-coupon CB to help it buy more bitcoin.

JP Morgan and Barclays are marketing the new CB across Monday’s session at a 0% fixed coupon and a 40%-45% conversion premium.

Formerly known as Marathon Digital, the bitcoin investor disclosed last week that it used proceeds from last month’s 0% CB due 2030 to buy 6,474 bitcoin at an average price of US$95,395 per coin.

After repurchasing US$200m of an existing CB, Mara still has US$160m of capacity on the 2030 to buy more bitcoin. The proceeds from the new CB provide additional firepower for new investments.

In another return issue, Core Scientific is seeking US$500m from the sale of a seven-year CB, having raised US$460m from a five-year CB in August.

JP Morgan and RBC Capital Markets are marketing the new CB across Monday’s session at a fixed 0% coupon and a 37.5%-42.5% conversion premium.

The new CB is being marketed at significantly better terms than the 3% interest on the 2029 CB.

Core shares closed Friday at US$17.88, up from US$3.44 when it emerged from bankruptcy in January and well above the US$11 conversion price for the 2029s.