From a flood to a trickle, US investment-grade corporate primary deal flow slowed today as geopolitical stresses were elevated.
Four IG offerings are expected to price on Tuesday. The high-yield corporate primary expects three issues to price today.
The ECM arena remains busy with a number of stock transactions, including convertible offerings.
Risk sentiment is on the softer side this morning alongside the escalation in the Russia/Ukraine war that may work to limit issuance, BMO said in a report this morning. US stocks opened sharply lower while US Treasury yields ebbed, with the 10-year benchmark note yield below 4.40%, hovering around 4.38%.
It is a light day for economic data reports today, with just October's preliminary residential construction slated for release. And just one Fed speaker is out on the road today: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid.
On Monday, nine IG offerings were priced totaling US$11.1bn, lifting November issuance to US$58.85bn, according to IFR data. The average new issue concession on Monday was 1.75bp and the average order book was 3.56x subscribed, according to the data. The average progression from initial price thoughts to pricing was 24.90bp tighter.
In the HY arena, two issues were priced totaling US$950m, pushing November volume to US$6.24bn.
The average IG bond spread was unchanged at 80bp for the third consecutive market session on Monday and the HY bond spread was unchanged at 272bp, according to ICE BofA data. US yields across asset classes on Monday were higher.
"IG index spreads were unchanged or a basis point narrower during yesterday’s session focused on the primary market," BMO said.
Separately, BMO, citing US Treasury TIC data, said overseas investors increased their holdings of US corporate bonds by US$43.4bn in September, which is the largest net purchase since March. Also, overseas investors bought US$121.1bn of US equities and US$77bn of US Treasuries.
"Combined with healthy inflows during July and August, foreigners have increased US corporate bond holdings by $118.7bn during the most recent three months of available data," BMO said.
"Strong foreign demand for US corporate paper in September is especially encouraging considering that cross currency yield relationships were very close to parity during the month and actually slightly favored corporates in other jurisdictions," BMO said. "We expect foreign demand for US corporates to remain strong in the near term, maintaining support for spreads that remain extremely low."
HIGH GRADE
At least four US high-grade bond deals are expected to price today.
Power company Vistra is in the market for a two-part bond offering, split into two and 10-year tranches. The proceeds are earmarked to finance the purchase of the remaining 15% equity stake of its subsidiary Vistra Vision.
Today's supply also includes three Yankee bond deals from Alibaba, Lloyds Banking Group and National Australia Bank.
Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba is issuing a three-part US dollar bond. Lloyds is selling three-part senior unsecured notes, including four-year non-call three and 11-year non-call 10 fixed-to-fixed tranches. The UK bank's transaction also has a four-year floater.
And National Australia Bank is going short with its senior offering today, targeting the three-year area of the corporate bond market.
LEVERAGE/HIGH YIELD
The primary market for US junk bonds is expecting another busy day on Tuesday as three borrowers line up to price deals today.
Payments company Deluxe, European telecom provider Iliad Holding and methanol producer Methanex are all preparing to complete dollar bond offerings today.
Meanwhile, marketing company RR Donnelley is looking to raise US$300m through a bond with a payment-in-kind structure.
Sole lead JP Morgan has released initial price thoughts of 12% for PIK payments and 11% for the cash coupon at a reoffer price of 95. Pricing is expected on Thursday.
STRUCTURED FINANCE
The asset-backed primary will step up today, with at least three issues totaling over US$2.5bn poised to price.
Yesterday, US carmakers Ford and General Motors, along with with fast-food chain Wingstop, released price guidance on their latest securitized bonds.
For Ford's US$1.29bn prime auto deal, the US$444m Triple A rated tranche with weighted-average life of 2.41 years has guidance of US Treasuries plus 47bp-49bp.
As for GM's floorplan offering, the US$500m three-year Triple A portion can be split into a fixed-rate and a floating-rate class, depending on demand. Guidance on the fixed-rate note is US Treasuries plus 65bp-67bp and on the floating-rate note SOFR plus 65bp-67bp.
And Wingstop's US$500m Triple B rated seven-year note has guidance of 180bp-190bp over US Treasuries.
Yesterday, wireless carrier Verizon raised US$1bn with its latest mobile payment plan securitization, while consumer lender Regional Management priced a US$250m personal loan deal.
In the RMBS space, Ares yesterday priced its second non-QM issue of the year, raising US$351.5m.
LATAM
Honduras is holding meetings starting today with fixed-income investors for a potential US dollar-denominated offering. Citibank is coordinating the meetings. Santander will be a joint bookrunner.
EQUITIES
MicroStrategy’s voracious appetite for buying bitcoin with funds raised from equity or equity-linked offerings was on display yet again late Monday with the launch of a US$1.75bn convertible bond, the crypto-hoarder's fifth CB this year alone, which comes on top of a US$21bn at-the-market program put in place last month.
Barclays, Citigroup, TD Securities and Cantor are marketing MicroStrategy's new five-year CB at a fixed zero-percent coupon and a 55%–60% conversion premium through Tuesday for pricing after the market closes.
The banks have a US$250m greenshoe option, though unusually they only have three days to exercise that option to sell more bonds.
MicroStrategy also revealed that it has raised US$4.6bn of equity from its separate ATM, using that money to acquire 51,780 bitcoins at an average price of US$88,627 per bitcoin. The company is also using the CB proceeds to add to its massive holdings of bitcoin, reinforcing its status as the most aggressive and largest corporate buyer of the cryptocurrency.
Shares of MicroStrategy closed Monday’s session at US$384.79, taking its gains for the year to 500.8% and increasing its market cap to US$78bn.
Mara, the bitcoin miner formerly known as Marathon Digital, took a leaf out of MicroStrategy’s playbook by raising an upsized US$850m late Monday from the sale of a new convertible bond, which it will also use to buy bitcoin.
JP Morgan and Barclays priced the new 5.25-year CB at a 0% coupon and 42.5% conversion premium after marketing at 0%-0.5% and 40%–45% across Monday’s session following the launch in the pre-open.
To help investors leg into hedges, the US$18.18 reference price on the CB was set using the VWAP over the final two hours of trading, versus the US$18.11 close.
After using US$199m of the proceeds to repurchase US$212m of an existing 1% CB due in 2026, Mara is spending the rest to buy more bitcoin.
Spyre Therapeutics rounded out Monday’s ECM activity by raising US$200m from an overnight stock sale, its first since going public via a reverse merger last year.
Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Evercore and Guggenheim Securities led the sale of 4.3m shares at a US$27.50 fixed price, a 4.1% discount to the US$28.67 last sale.
The early-stage biotech sold stock at a down round from the US$180m Spyre raised in May via a PIPE priced at US$37 a share.
Spyre had US$342m of cash at the end of September, including both the PIPE and US$210m raised privately alongside its reverse merger into failed rare disease specialist Aeglea BioTherapeutics in June 2023.