US ECM bankers are looking to generate at least a little end-of-year momentum to make up for a dismal 2022 that has seen deal proceeds plummet 80%.
Though time is quickly running out, some IPOs could launch and price in the three-week ECM window that opens on Monday and runs through the week before Christmas.
That said, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meeting in mid-December could determine whether the latest stock market bounce (since mid-October) is more than another bear market rally and how long the funding window remains open through the final month of the year.
Skyward Specialty Insurance and Bounty Minerals filed earlier this month to position themselves to potentially launch IPOs as early as Monday.
Meanwhile, Fogo Hospitality, KinderCare Learning, MN8 Energy and Savers Value Village are keeping their options open given they amended their earlier IPO filings earlier this month.
Energy plays BKV and TXO Energy Partners have filed for IPOs more recently and could launch their offerings in early December. That said, oil prices have fallen from the high-80s to under US$80 a barrel during November, setting back the ambitions of those with exposure to crude.
Yet the focus of ECM activity will more likely return to secondaries and opportunities for sponsors to cash in select public holdings as they did in the week before Thanksgiving, though often at wide discounts and/or prices below where they had sold previously.
Several of the names that brought secondaries earlier this month were the same ones that priced offerings when ECM staged a short-lived recovery in August and September on the back of a mid-year stock market bounce. That pool of companies are among the most obvious candidates to return for further insider sell-downs.
The S&P 500 touched new 2022 lows in mid-October but have rallied about 15% since then to provide a stronger issue backdrop after a year in which investors have battled higher interest rates and tighter liquidity.
According to Refinitiv data, proceeds from US common stock sales (IPOs and follows) have fallen 81.5% to US$53.7bn this year versus the same period last year.