Equity capital markets bankers are expecting another busy year for IPOs and follow-on offerings in Asia Pacific after 2020 smashed records for equity issuance.
Equity and equity-linked fundraising in Asia Pacific, excluding Japan, surged 71% in 2020 to US$402.5bn after sizable Chinese listings and follow-ons in the fourth quarter pushed full-year volumes to an all-time high, surpassing the previous record of US$306.2bn in 2010, according to Refinitiv data.
That pace looks set to continue in 2021 as the roll-out of Covid-19 vaccines raises hopes for a global economic rebound.
“2021 should be a very exciting and busy year for Asia ECM. Many of the macro drivers that drove issuance last year are still here. The region’s strong secular growth continues, reinforced by a robust and fast-growing Chinese economy,” said William Smiley, co-head of equity capital markets for Asia ex-Japan at Goldman Sachs.
Issuers from China accounted for the bulk of the activity in 2020, raising US$282bn or 70% of the total. Sizable deals in the fourth quarter included a US$3.91bn placement and convertible bond from smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp and a US$6bn equity combo from Chinese e-commerce company Pinduoduo.
Morgan Stanley led the league table followed by Citic Securities.
More mega Chinese fundraisings are expected this year, mainly from the TMT, healthcare, fintech and consumer sectors.
Online short video company Kuaishou Technology plans to bring a Hong Kong IPO of more than US$5bn in January while JD Logistics is looking at a US$4bn Hong Kong IPO in the second quarter. Tech giant ByteDance is expected to list its China business in Hong Kong or Shanghai at a valuation of more than US$100bn while ride-hailing firm Didi Chuxing is considering a Hong Kong IPO which could value it at more than US$60bn.
After 10 homecoming IPOs raising a combined US$29bn, more US-listed Chinese companies are expected to conduct a Hong Kong secondary listing this year. US-listed video-streaming site Bilibili is targeting a US$3bn listing in the first quarter, online car-sale website Autohome is planning a US$1bn share sale in the first half while search engine giant Baidu is also working on a secondary listing which could raise about US$3.5bn if a 5% stake is offered.
A-share markets will remain active in 2021 with a number of giant IPOs are already lining up including a pair of US$3bn Star IPOs from Geely Auto and JD Digits, and a US$3.2bn ChiNext IPO from Dongfeng Motor.
The volume of A-share IPOs in 2021 may reach a 10-year high in 2021, according to Thomas Leung, managing partner at PwC, with around 430 to 490 companies raising a total of Rmb450bn– Rmb480bn (US$70bn–US$74bn).
Vivien Zhang, assurance partner at Ernst & Young, also sees the full implementation of a registration-based IPO regime driving issuance.
“With further strengthening of the A-share exit system, the enhancement of the quality of listed companies will also lead to an improvement in the A-share ecosystem. IPO activities in 2021 are expected to remain active,” she said.
Beyond China
Indian ECM issuance jumped last year to US$37.5bn compared with US$21bn in 2019.
Reliance Industries’ Rs531bn (US$7bn) rights issue was the biggest deal of the year followed by the GlaxoSmithKline-led Rs254bn block in India’s Hindustan Unilever. SBI Cards and Payment Services’ Rs103bn IPO was the largest float of the year.
Going forward, bankers expect 2021 ECM volume to be around US$30bn on steady flow of IPOs, qualified institutional placements and blocks.
Mangesh Ghogre, head of India ECM at Nomura, expects continued momentum and sees more deals raising US$500m and above.
“Companies will continue to raise capital for growth while controlling shareholders and investors will sell shares to take advantage of the run up in the stock market,” he said.
Brookfield Real Estate Investment Trust is planning an IPO of up to US$650m and Aadhar Housing Finance up to US$700m.
Australia also saw a pick-up in IPOs in the fourth quarter with software provider Nuix hitting the market with the year’s biggest IPO for A$953m (US$708m), adding to the annual volume of US$36.5bn, up 55% from 2019.
This year’s equity issuance is likely to be dominated by M&A-related fundraisings rather than recapitalisations, but bankers are also expect IPOs to continue.
“As sponsors and issuers have indicated their interests in executing an IPO during the course of the year, we are fully expecting it to be part of the equity story this year,” said a Sydney-based ECM banker.
Other markets
In South-East Asia, ECM volume picked up in Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam in 2020 when compared with 2019 but dropped in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Thailand’s ECM volume rose to US$7.09bn from US$4.70bn and the country saw two US$1bn-plus IPOs – SCG Packaging for Bt39bn (US$1.29bn) and Central Retail for Bt38bn.
Bankers expect South-East Asia to play catch-up with the more active markets of China and India this year. According to a Singapore-based ECM banker, Indonesia may see at least one US$1bn IPO from technology companies such as Tokopedia and Traveloka. In Malaysia, glove maker Top Glove is planning a US$1bn Hong Kong listing.
South Korea’s IPO market in 2021 is expected to follow the strong recovery in stock prices after the pandemic that fuels investor enthusiasm for new listings. Last year, Big Hit Entertainment raised W963bn (US$820m) from the country’s biggest IPO in three years.
A long list of IPOs are lining up this year including giants CJ HealthCare, Hyundai Card, KakaoBank, Kakao Page and SK Bioscience. SK Innovation's spin-off of SK IET in a US$1bn KRX IPO is expected to be the year’s largest.
Corrected story: Corrects reference to Indian IPO in 15th paragraph