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The People’s Republic of China may be more than 10,000 miles away from Latin America, but given the influence it has been having on the region, you could be forgiven for thinking it occupies the same barrio. There’s been no bigger influence on the region’s economy over the past few years than the PRC. With China’s growth slowing to about 7.5% from the runaway double-digit peak it reached in 2010–11, it’s not surprising that LatAm has suffered similarly. The good news is that the IMF says the region’s growth will pick up this year to 3% from 2...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. In 1994 the US Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, triggering a run of events that led to the tequila crisis and a deep recession in Mexico. Fast forward two decades to the taper tantrum and Mexico secured US$7bn in foreign investment in January 2014 alone and was upgraded to Aa3 by Moody’s. This is perhaps the strongest indication that at least parts of LatAm and...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Just as one tends to recall the moment they fall out of love but struggles to recollect when they tumbled in, it’s often tricky to pinpoint the precise moment when an economy’s on-switch is located. In stark contrast, we usually remember when a sovereign nation’s growth model falters or fails, but not the events that triggered its initial rise. Mexico may have broken that mould....
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. The headline that flashed up on trading screens on February 27: “Brazil – not in technical recession” was a relief both to Latin America-focused investors, and to lawmakers in the capital, Brasilia. But it was hardly a ringing endorsement of the country’s prospects. Yes, Brazil’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2013, beating expectations to expand by 0.7% year on year. But...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Like bird watchers, observers scouring Argentina’s landscape for the return of a species that appeared extinct – transparent data – remain wary of flights of fancy as the chickens of economic populism come home to roost. Recent government revisions to inflation figures smoothed feathers among analysts twitchily seeking to ascertain whether they signal a grudging return to...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. In September last year Venezuela began to run out of toilet paper. President Nicolas Maduro ordered national price regulator Sundecop to take control of factories run by Manpa, the company whose products wipe 40% of the country’s bottoms. A crisis was averted, but a more potent symbol of Venezuela’s deep economic problems – the shortages, currency devaluations and the highest...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Latin America’s often bumpy relationship with new stock sales has set the bar far higher for initial public offerings than anywhere else in the world. While companies in North America and Europe accelerate plans to list on the back of a wave of enthusiasm (and premium valuations), those in LatAm must be sufficiently committed to set pricing at bargain basement levels. Even then...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. In Arthur Miller’s play Death of a Salesman, Willy Loman, having just been fired by a boss he hates, seeks succour from Charley, his successful, wise-cracking neighbour, who dispenses a little timeless advice. “The only thing you’ve got in this world,” he tells the anti-hero Loman, “is what you can sell”. Eike Batista would do well to read Miller’s enduring work, still trotted...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Argentina’s seizure of national champion and oil giant YPF from its Spanish owner Repsol in 2012 was a defining moment in the country’s economic history. The raid saw the country take custody of its prized asset, gas field Vaca Muerta (which translates as dead cow). It was hoped the revenues from this bountiful gas field would provide a much-needed shot in the arm for Argentina’s...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Latin America’s key financial centres are keeping up to speed with Basel III regulatory requirements on bank capital and liquidity, which were drafted by the Bank for International Settlements’ Basel Committee, which drafted the requirements. The regulations are designed to boost bank capital requirements by increasing liquidity and decreasing leverage. Domestic capital regulations...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. There has been little reason to be optimistic about the prospects for syndicated lending in Latin America in recent years as fragile market conditions have tipped the balance in favour of the bond market where more attractive tenors and pricing have been available. But while loan issuance in the region dropped to a three-year low last year, banks widely expect the market to recover...
To see the digital version of this report, please click here. To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email gloria.balbastro@thomsonreuters.com. Companies tend to trumpet the international awards that they have won. It is unlikely, however, that Petroleo Brasileiro SA, better known as Petrobras, is likely to shout too loudly about the fact that Bank of America Merrill Lynch named it the world’s most indebted company in a report last year. Debt currently sits at a hefty US$114.3bn. The Rio de Janeiro-based state-owned oil...
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