Where have all the bank mergers gone?

IFR 2000 7 September to 13 September 2013
7 min read
EMEA

THERE’S BEEN A lot of talk about bank consolidation in the past week, prompted by Anshu Jain’s comments at a Frankfurt conference. The Deutsche Bank co-chief executive said that tough new regulations and the end of almost-free central bank liquidity (which, let’s face it, has benefited banks more than anyone else) would change the industry landscape.

“There is a clear consolidation of the industry,” Reuters quoted him as saying. “There is a tremendous opportunity to take market share organically but, frankly, inorganically as well.” Jain sees the winners being regional lenders or banks with focused business models and a global presence. He pointed out that you can’t be small and globally competitive. ”There is a minimum scale for efficiency,” he said.

I guess that depends on the business you’re in. I’d argue that in businesses such as M&A advisory you can be both. On the broad point on consolidation, I’m not sure how clear it is. But, still, my question holds: where are all the big bank mergers?

I TOOK A deep dive into year-to-date bank M&A deal flow to see what the banks had been doing and frankly it’s a bit of a snore. What hit me was the sheer amount of internal group stuff. Actually, I think “deals” of this kind should be excluded from M&A league tables as they’re no more than moving the pieces around the board.

Fantasy Investment Banking in a Consolidated World 2013 to date
Managing bank or groupIB fees US$(m)Share (%)
1JP Morgan3,9098.81
2Barclays/UBS3,5988.11
3Bank of America Merrill Lynch3,5758.06
4MUFG/Morgan Stanley3,4087.68
5Goldman Sachs3,1577.12
6Citigroup/Nomura3,0936.97
7Barclays/SGCIB2,6075.88
8Wells Fargo/Nomura/Natixis2,5415.73
9UBS/HSBC2,3155.22
10Wells Fargo/Nomura2,3085.2
11Deutsche Bank2,2345.04
12Credit Suisse2,1604.87
13Wells Fargo/Jefferies2,0464.61
14RBC Capital Markets/Nomura1,7844.02
15RBC/Jefferies1,5813.56
Total 15 Total40,31690.87
Industry total44,367
Source: The Edge of Reason

Bearing in mind that most bank deleveraging trades don’t touch the league tables, the reported deal flow is made up of disposals of small regional or business units driven by strategic rethinking and/or things such as peripheral EU banks reining in and focusing on issues closer to home.

There are some arguably more interesting situations around government disposals, which is creating some interest around Commerzbank and Lloyds, and banks repaying government bailout funds. But there’s been nothing transformational.

The closest we’ve come to that is Asian banks looking to acquire in some of the faster-growing Asian economies (SMBC acquiring a stake in Indonesia’s Bank TPN and BTMU buying a 75% interest in Thailand’s Bank of Ayudhya).

IN A WORLD obsessed with the fate of quantitative easing and trying to read between the lines of G-20 political intent around Syria and Fed tapering and their combined impact on the world economy, we need to lighten the mood. What’s lacking in this market is a dose of good old-fashioned speculation and gossip about which banks might merge or be taken over.

What’s lacking in this market is a dose of good old-fashioned speculation and gossip about which banks might merge or be taken over

I got to wondering what would need to happen in an investment banking context to shake up the wallet share status quo, so I took investment banking fee data and put together a Fantasy Top 15 based on a series of dreamt-up transformational mergers. I looked at who’s punching below their weight; who’s too focused on a single region; who lacks balance sheet power, and so on.

So what did I come up with? Well, we’ve had gossip this past week about UBS buying the German government’s stake in Commerzbank. But what would happen if the two firms were to merge their investment banks? (They’d make it into the Top 10 of global IB wallet share). Similarly, Barclays had looked at UBS (that’d be second) and Societe Generale (remaining seventh but with a broader product set) before taking on Lehman. HSBC was also linked to UBS at one point (ninth).

Elsewhere, there are some no brainers such as MUFG acquiring the rest of Morgan Stanley and taking the combo to third in the global fee rankings assuming no other tie-ups.

I’ve married Nomura to any number of suitors. On its home turf, Nomura is still king of the hill with a chunky 125bp of fee uplift over its nearest rival Morgan Stanley/MUMSS but it has suffered a setback in its international strategy. Putting it into bed with Wells Fargo would create a US/Japan powerhouse with balance sheet oomph; I’ve cheekily also thrown in Natixis, a mid-sized investment bank, to add a bit of European ballast and it doesn’t look bad.

Nomura/Macquarie would just fall out of the top 10, while Wells Fargo or RBC CM with Jefferies would be a US powerhouse (fourth and sixth respectively). Finishing with emerging markets: how about Standard Chartered getting it on with Pactual, VTB, SBI and Citic in a UK-centred BRIC behemoth? It would lift them all from the twilight zone of IB wallet pointlessness to the limelight of the global top 15.

OK time to wake up…

Fantasy Investment Banking in a Consolidated World 2013 to date
Managing bank or groupIB fees US$(m)Share (%)
1JP Morgan3,9098.81
2Barclays/UBS3,5988.11
3Bank of America Merrill Lynch3,5758.06
4MUFG/Morgan Stanley3,4087.68
5Goldman Sachs3,1577.12
6Citigroup/Nomura3,0936.97
7Barclays/SGCIB2,6075.88
8Wells Fargo/Nomura/Natixis2,5415.73
9UBS/HSBC2,3155.22
10Wells Fargo/Nomura2,3085.2
11Deutsche Bank2,2345.04
12Credit Suisse2,1604.87
13Wells Fargo/Jefferies2,0464.61
14RBC Capital Markets/Nomura1,7844.02
15RBC/Jefferies1,5813.56
Total 15 Total40,31690.87
Industry total44,367
Source: The Edge of Reason