| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Mar. 2014 | Mar. 2015 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Standard deviation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Number of replies | 52 | 52 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 44 |
| Probability distributions | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Mar. 2014 | Mar. 2015 | 2017 |
| <-1.0% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 1.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 4.5 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 5.9 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 21.7 | 24.5 | 17.0 | 24.3 | 19.6 | 13.4 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 48.2 | 33.8 | 32.2 | 34.5 | 31.4 | 27.6 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 18.1 | 19.0 | 24.1 | 18.1 | 22.5 | 27.8 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 4.8 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 14.8 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 5.8 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| >4.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Source: European Central Bank
Divyang Shah, Senior IFR Strategist
For 2013 growth is seen at -0.4% (prev flat) and inflation at 1.0% for 2014 (prev 1.1%); both are largely consensus.
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q4 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Standard deviation | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Number of replies | 52 | 52 | 41 | 44 | 43 | 42 |
| Probability distributions | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q4 | 2017 |
| <-1.0% | 8.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 26.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 39.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 19.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 18.1 | 14.1 | 6.2 | 29.3 | 11.0 | 4.2 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 5.7 | 25.2 | 13.8 | 21.8 | 20.4 | 10.5 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 1.5 | 26.6 | 28.2 | 10.9 | 27.3 | 20.4 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.3 | 14.0 | 25.1 | 5.2 | 18.3 | 26.6 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 0.1 | 6.7 | 12.8 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 19.1 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 0.0 | 2.8 | 6.1 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 10.2 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| >4.0% | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Source: European Central Bank
What is more significant is the inflation view where 2013 is seen at 1.7% (prev 1.8%) and 2014 seen at 1.6% (prev 1.8%) while the forecast for 2017 stays at 2.0%.
The inflation developments help to support the ECB’s view on easing, as the easing is not creating any concerns over the inflation outlook. This will make it easier to sell further stimulus especially to Germany as it allays concerns the ECB is being reckless with its balance sheet.
The prospects of a refi rate at 0.25% and a negative deposit rate at the next ECB meeting in June have risen following recent comments and are further supported by today’s survey of professional forecasters.
