Myanmar’s progress towards democracy under reformist President Thein Sein has catapulted the country to the top of the international agenda after almost 25 years in isolation. For the ADB, the country is both an opportunity and a challenge.
David Cameron met newly elected Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the democratic movement, in April, becoming the first UK prime minister to visit since 1948. The private sector is already rushing in. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and Daiwa Securities have announced plans to open Myanmar’s first stock exchange come 2015.
The appeal is clear. Myanmar is the missing piece of the puzzle for Asia, lying between China, India and South-East Asia. Its US$40bn economy is barely an eighth the size of neighbouring Thailand, which has a similar population.
The ADB is stepping up its operations in Myanmar with a view to support key infrastructure projects. President Haruhiko Kuroda visited Myanmar earlier this year, and the bank is conducting preliminary assessments of the economy and key sectors.
The next step calls for more in-depth analysis of individual sectors and the development of specific projects. The ADB will be there soon, according to vice president Stephen Groff, who overseas the territory.
Normal lending, however, can only come once Myanmar has cleared around US$500m of arrears with the ADB. Informal discussions are under way, but complicating Myanmar’s position is its arrears with other international institutions. It has around another US$300m of arrears with the World Bank, and as much as US$6bn–$7bn with Japan. It is not clear of Paris Club negotiations are an option for Myanmar, but, in any event, negotiations will take time.
As sanctions are lifted and borders opened, there is a risk that the private sector’s enthusiasm will leave funds open to abuse or diversion to the wrong causes.
However, the ADB sees the reversal of progress towards reform as a greater risk.
“We’ve been engaging with Myanmar and we are stepping up that engagement,” said Groff. “This demonstration of engagement is critical in showing the government and the people of Myanmar that reforms are really the right way to go.”