Sterling, the surprise package
Despite the chaos of Brexit, a benign basis swap and a reformed Libor replacement rate have seen a boom in sterling-denominated SSA issuance in the first three months of the year.
Few would be so presumptuous as to lay claim to the ability to plot the progress of the global economy with unerring accuracy on a constant basis. But there are still many that make the prediction game their stock in trade – with varying degrees of success.
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Despite the chaos of Brexit, a benign basis swap and a reformed Libor replacement rate have seen a boom in sterling-denominated SSA issuance in the first three months of the year.
Venezuela’s government in waiting is readying restructuring plans, but economic meltdown is muddying the waters – not to mention political uncertainty.
As investors survey the future, they are met with a view of low rates and below-target inflation as far as the eye can see. No wonder peripheral credits, offering a bit of additional yield, have been so well supported in their bond offerings in 2019.
Opacity and lack of information make for difficult investment decisions.
A monetary cycle that was supposed to have seen the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank back quickly away from their stimulative policies and move into full-blown tightening has been replaced by a rapidly hatched Plan B. Markets are struggling to figure it all out.
It would be fair to say that Fed chairman Powell’s first year in office has not been exactly plain sailing. After spooking the market in late 2018, he was forced into a swift change of policy and posture. The economy now looks wobblier than it did, and, at the same time Powell faces perhaps a more confusing constellation of worries than those which confronted his predecessors.
China’s influence in Sri Lanka is never far from view, with much recently constructed infrastructure reliant on funds from the PRC. And while it might also be on hand to provide the cash to repay those debts, Colombo is making sure it retains other options.
A central bank volte-face underpinned a strong rally across the SSA market to produce supportive issuance conditions as investors flocked back to the market. For their part, borrowers bought themselves breathing space for more tumultuous times ahead.
Investors have never been so demanding. Many now demand returns are measured not only in terms of cash but in environmental and social improvement. The result has been the rise of the sustainable development bond market, with SSA issuers playing a leading role.