Indias surprise recovery
India’s economy is set to grow between 5%–6.5% in 2009, well above early expectations, thanks to an ambitious stimulus package and an improving global economy, which have bolstered domestic consumption and industrial output.
If you set out to prove the decoupling hypothesis, the idea that Asian markets are now sufficiently distinct from the US and Europe to be insulated from the global financial crisis, you could do worse than starting with India. While at one point it looked as though the global recession would more than halve the 8.5% growth rate that India had averaged over the previous five years, the country now looks set to grow by as much 6%–6.5% this year and even faster in 2010, the effects of a severe drought notwithstanding. India’s resilience is largely...Read more
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India’s economy is set to grow between 5%–6.5% in 2009, well above early expectations, thanks to an ambitious stimulus package and an improving global economy, which have bolstered domestic consumption and industrial output.
Indian ECM has a spring in its step in 2009 after a sombre 2008. Since the May 2009 election results declared the Congress Party and allies clear winners, an avalanche of qualified institutional placements have hit the market, particularly in the real estate and infrastructure sectors.
India’s growing financial sector may have come a long way in a short timeframe, but optimists believe that things are just getting started. They argue that the next 10 years will see more changes than the past 25 years, especially in the asset management space. Even with a slower economy, analysts expect to see a four-fold increase in India’s investable wealth from US$250bn in 2007 to US$1trn by 2012.
India may have weathered the credit crunch well, but no country escapes a global economic downturn unscathed. Growing numbers of Indian companies are seeking to avoid defaults and insolvencies by restructuring their debt. At the end of March, 34 companies were using India’s consensual Corporate Debt Restructuring mechanism to negotiate with their lenders, compared with 10 at the end of last year.
Indian borrowers have hardly made their presence felt in the offshore loan markets in the past year and this is largely due to the slowdown in outbound M&A and the lack of liquidity in international credit markets. With no clear signs of the global financial crisis dissipating, loan bankers are hoping Indian regulators will relax rules governing offshore borrowings to help resuscitate sagging loan markets.
The domestic Indian loan market has been surging ahead irrespective of the general slowdown in the global economy and much to the envy of its offshore counterpart that has languished since the global financial crisis froze international credit markets.
The Indian rupee bond market has done well to become a viable alternative for capital- starved corporates looking for new funding avenues with the closure of offshore debt markets. Issuance volumes have been strong this year and the issuer base has widened significantly. However, this growth phase is set to be stunted amid a continuing lack of depth because of a limited investor base and tight regulations.
On the back of their recent election victory, India’s United Progressive Alliance led by the Indian National Congress delivered a clear message: to develop India’s sub-par infrastructure with an ambitious stimulus package. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan has earmarked US$500bn to achieve this, while the previous five-year plan committed US$250bn.
Counterparty risk has become a mainstream term as part of the global financial crisis and efforts are underway to understand it better and minimise the fallout when things go wrong. Syed Shahabuddin, the Mumbai-based chief executive of the Clearing Corp of India talks about what has been going on.
Tata Group is truly the torchbearer of India Inc’s expansion drive overseas. And no other company in the group epitomises that better than Tata Motors. The Indian automaker has emerged unscathed from the global financial crisis thanks to a year-long refinancing exercise that straddled multiple asset classes and could very well pave the way for other Indian companies.
Among the many Indian companies that have made a mark with their overseas acquisitions is Hindalco Industries, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group conglomerate. Although often overshadowed by the achievements of and the attention to its peer Tata Group, Hindalco has quietly completed a transformational acquisition that has catapulted the group on to the global stage.