Euro moves centre stage
The IMF is, among other issues, dealing with a US fiscal cliff, China’s slower investment and high public debt in Japan, but at the moment the eurozone is of paramount concern.
How times have changed. In the past, talk of bailouts, IMF loans, and fiscal mismanagement usually meant one thing: yet another emerging market country had run into trouble and needed saving. Now this type of language is being applied to the eurozone. In contrast, the so-called emerging markets are in much better health. Indeed the term “emerging markets” is becoming a misnomer. “Growth markets” seems a more appropriate appellation.
To purchase printed copies or a PDF of this report, please email leonie.welss@lseg.com and shahid.hamid@lseg.com
The IMF is, among other issues, dealing with a US fiscal cliff, China’s slower investment and high public debt in Japan, but at the moment the eurozone is of paramount concern.
The economic fallout following the collapse of Lehman Brothers was acutely felt in Central and Eastern Europe, with the rate of non-performing loans in the region shooting up from late 2008 and into 2009. Development banks have been trying to boost the secondary market in loans to help alleviate the problem, but it has not been easy.
Memories of the 2001 banking crisis motivated Turkey’s financial watchdog to deliver a seamless transition to new Basel II capital rules.
Until recently Chinese domestic bond markets took a back seat in the country’s economic expansion, as banks and equity markets provided the fuel for growth. In recent months all that has changed, and fixed income has moved centre stage as the funding source of choice for China’s cash-hungry companies.
As consumer-driven economies deepen, demand for commodities will pick up again, contrary to some who ascribe to the notion that the economic slowdown in China and India will impact on consumers and producers.
Mrs Watanabe has caught on to the idea of Turkey. Thanks to an almost 5% appreciation in the lira this year, no wonder that Uridashi denominated in the currency have made up a third of issuance this year.
As the global economic and financial environment has deteriorated since the end of last year a visible hard landing of China’s economy would undoubtedly reinforce negative views on global growth.
The global financial system stands to gain with Moscow as an international financial centre, but only if Russia commits to long-lasting reform.
Africa’s diversity has limited the IMF’s ability to take credit for the continent’s improving health, which owes much to the scramble to export abundant natural resources.
African banks, like Gaul, fall into three categories. The first are national institutions, the second, pan-African institutions and the third global institutions. Banks moving up this chain now challenge the largest South African banks for primacy in Africa.
This year marked a recovery for the Middle East sukuk market, with record issuances in the Islamic debt securities, the highest since 2007.
Brazil’s domestic bond market has surged this year as issuers take advantage of low yields and the market is expected to receive a significant boost as Brazilian companies issue infrastructure debentures that are highly attractive to foreign investors.
As the real estate market in Latin America’s top five economies continues to expand, concerns are growing that expansion of mortgage credit could undermine the strong growth in the financial sector.
Argentina has found a credible scapegoat in the IMF for its self-imposed exile from capital markets.
Our exclusive insider’s guide to the best of Tokyo’s bars and restaurants.