Surfing global liquidity
Turkey remains an investor darling. It benefits from a young population, a stable government committed to market-orientated reform, a bold Central Bank and declining inflation. What could possibly go wrong?
Shelter from the storm: Turkey can be forgiven for feeling smug. With Cyprus cranking the eurozone crisis back into high gear and the EU’s peripheral members again looking fragile, at first sight the country stands out from its rowdy neighbours as a paragon of growth and financial stability.
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Turkey remains an investor darling. It benefits from a young population, a stable government committed to market-orientated reform, a bold Central Bank and declining inflation. What could possibly go wrong?
The bellwether economy for emerging Europe has set its usual brisk pace in the international bond markets, but diversification is the watchword as it seeks to reduce its dollar dependency.
Foreign companies are eager to get a foothold in Turkey, but there are concerns as surging valuations are driven by eager foreign investors and family businesses dominate parts of the economic landscape.
The past few years have been tough-going for investment bankers in Turkey. But much-needed financial reforms, allied to a rising and increasingly stable economy, are finally instilling much-needed confidence in Turkey’s investor base.
Grand plans have been set in motion for the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
Despite concerns about the impact of the adoption of Basel II last summer, Turkish banks came out of the exercise in good shape and are becoming the capital market darlings of 2013.
Turkey has taken steps to reform its pension system, which should eventually come to be the basis of stable and resilient capital markets. The nation is following the path to developing a deep pool of domestic institutional investors previously travelled by Poland.
Two Turkish banks and one Russian bank have launched inaugural Turkish lira-denominated international bond issues this year, taking advantage of investor appetite for higher yields to open a new funding option for issuers. However, with the outlook for the Turkish currency less than certain, investors may find they have taken a bigger bet than they had bargained for.
Turkey’s blooming economy is attracting jumbo loans from international lenders to fuel the emerging country’s growing portfolio of multi-billion infrastructure and privatisations projects and support its well-established financial institution market.