Keeping afloat: Emerging market countries, where the IMF has concentrated much of its resources, reveal a strange state of affairs. On the one hand, there were warnings from the fund itself that they and their corporations risked becoming loaded down with debt, both in local and foreign currency, and that the prospect of rising US interest rates risks made them vulnerable. On the other, while the initial Federal Reserve move caused a slight blip in terms of currency and bond yields, the situation soon reverted largely to how it had been. The...Read more
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Repeated warnings about high and rising global debt levels in emerging markets have so far proved to be false alarms and money continues to flow into assets affording a pick-up to developed markets. Relative value is beguiling, but there is always the risk of volatility in EM markets and always a fear that the market is overdone.
The pressure on Greece has subsided since the height of the crisis, with no unmanageable repayments due imminently. But the country has barely scratched the surface of the painful reforms needed to deliver dynamic growth and many still feel debt forgiveness is the only realistic route out of its malaise.
Egypt has visited the capital markets twice this year. The success of the deals is down to an IMF loan at the end of last year which helped put the country back on a path for economic success.
The business climate in Brazil has improved markedly during the last few months despite all the political turmoil, underlined by a wave of important initial public offerings.
A difficult 2016, dominated by the failed coup and the government’s heavy-handed response, ended on a high note for Turkey, with growth picking up for the final quarter and remaining relatively strong throughout 2017. But few expect the momentum to last, with the country facing considerable economic challenges and serious doubts about the government’s willingness or ability to tackle them.
Green bond issuance from the Emerging Markets represented close to half the total deal volume for 2016. The numbers suggest that EM is well on the way to enticing private investment flows into addressing its huge sustainability requirements. EM may represent half the Green bond volumes, but it is only half the sustainable story.
The advent of Masala bonds was seen as a possible saviour of the Indian economy. Regulatory caution this year appears to have derailed their popularity, but as always in India, not all is as it seems.
Landmark deal broke new ground for lower-rated issuers and investors alike and reflects a surge in Global yen issuance by foreign corporates.
The story of developments around the European banking sector has turned into a convoluted and complex tale.
Mexico’s economy is holding up despite all the uncertainty caused by the election of Donald Trump as US president in November and by the country’s presidential and legislative elections next July.
The convergence of banking systems in the ASEAN region under the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF) is supposed to happen by 2020 but the project attracts scepticism. There are optimists who believe the political will exists to execute ABIF, although the task is moving ahead patchily.