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IFR Outlook for US Rates Roundtable 2015

IFR’s 2015 US Rates Roundtable took place in New York on October 29, the day after that month’s FOMC meeting, so the comments made by our distinguished panel of rates strategists and laid out in the following pages were current as of that date.

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IFR Outlook for US Rates Roundtable 2015: Participants

Larry Dyer HSBC Lawrence Dyer is chief US interest-rate strategist at HSBC. He joined HSBC in 2006 and has over 25 years of experience in fixed-income strategy in the rates, derivatives, mortgage and corporate sectors. George Goncalves Nomura George Goncalves is head of rates strategy in the Americas for Nomura, covering US Treasuries, TIPS, GSEs/SSAs, swaps, vol, futures and cross-rates). With 17-plus years of market experience, Goncalves uses a combination of economic fundamentals/rates valuation, global macro, flows/positioning and...

IFR Outlook for US Rates Roundtable 2015: Part 1

IFR: Welcome to this Thomson Reuters IFR US Rates Roundtable. This event has run now for about four or five years and over that period we’ve discussed Fed policy, the tools that the Fed has in its armoury, their efficiency and efficacy, and its room for manoeuvre. In all the years that I’ve been hosting this event I don’t recall a period where there have been so many headwinds and so many issues, be it in emerging markets, be it in commodity prices, oil prices, this whole QE and rate normalisation discussion, which has easily been the most...

IFR Outlook for US Rates Roundtable 2015: Part 2

IFR: In some respects, Guy, the Fed has got a bit of an impossible job in terms of pleasing all of the constituents at any one time. Do you think they’ve handled this process as well as they potentially might have done? Had you been Fed governor, what would you have done differently? Guy Haselmann, Scotiabank: Everything. I’m not even sure where to begin. I never would have done QE3. I think they’re fear mongering about deflation. I think they achieved their dual mandates a long time ago. Let me tease my friend George here, who doesn’t...

IFR Outlook for US Rates Roundtable 2015: Part 3

IFR: George, let’s say we get to December and we do get that hike. How do you foresee the impact of that? Look into 2016. George Goncalves, Nomura: Well, let’s take a look back at this year and look at what they promised that they would do by now, which they haven’t done. Hike by the middle of the year. September looked very close to be in play, then it wasn’t. They ended up sounding very dovish and now sounding somewhat hawkish in the October FOMC statement. It feels like they’re quasi-tightening through language and communication more so...